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02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When was the last time that a team held the eighth and final playoff spot at the All-Star break and was the second choice to win its conference? Miami is currently a .500 club at 26-26 but yet is 2-1 to win the East!
At 32-19, Detroit has won 11 of its last 14 games and leads the Heat by almost seven full games in the standings. The Pistons, however, only are favored by the slimmest of margins at 9-5. Which club, at this stage of the season, provides the most value for the money? No doubt that its the Pistons, who are a lock to be either a one or a two-seed come the postseason. Miami, on the other hand, will be lucky to host a first-round playoff series.
In the Western Conference, the Mavericks and the Suns are the teams to beat, which is why they are the top two choices at 7-5 and 5-2, respectively. Dallas has not missed a beat all year long, losing only nine of its first 53 games. Phoenix has been hit with the injury bug, as all-world guard Steve Nash has missed the last four games with a badly bruised right shoulder. Coincidentally, the Suns have dropped their last three games.
Time to examine the top teams in the league and figure out which clubs present the best value to win each conference:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) DETROIT (9-5)
All the Pistons could do in last seasons playoffs vs. the Heat was fail to reach 93 points in all six games. Their defense was stellar in the first two rounds, as they held both Cleveland and Miami to an average of 92 points per game. The last 11 contests they played all went UNDER. Since January 1, 2007, Detroit has played 22 games and has held the opposition to an average of 90 ppg, so the solid defense is still there. The Pistons, 14-8 in those contests, are 11-5 against the other top eight teams in the conference standings. Another statistic of note is that Detroit is the only Eastern club with a .500 or better road record at 15-9. In fact, the closest team is Indiana at 11-14. The Pistons are the best squad in the East, and their 9-5 odds seem about right.
2) MIAMI (2-1)
It is true that Shaquille ONeal has played only 13 games this year, and thats the main reason the Heat are so close to missing the postseason. Obviously, a lot of people think Shaqs return will propel the Heat to loftier standings, but will it really? ONeal, at 13.5 ppg, is averaging approximately half his career mark of 26 points per game. He is also at the lowest point of his career in rebounding with only six boards per game. Miami is dead last at 5-10 against the other top eight teams in the East. I know that Shaq has missed most of those games, but at 2-1 odds, the Heat quite possibly could be the worst bet of all time.
3) CLEVELAND (9-2)
The Cavaliers have the second-worst record at 7-10 vs. the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is doing all he can to carry Cleveland, but hes averaging five points less per game this year than last, and the team had a better winning percentage last season. On the flip side, the change in the rules allowing the second-best team in a conference to be in the two-spot will be a huge benefit and that could carry the Cavs all the way to the conference finals. Cleveland is very playable at 9-2.
4) CHICAGO (6-1)
Most of the so-called experts were jumping all over Chicagos bandwagon during the preseason after the club added Ben Wallace. His numbers with the Bulls are extremely similar to when he was with Detroit, but its obvious the supporting cast here is nowhere near the level of that of the Pistons. Chicago is playing great ball within its division (7-2) and is 10-7 vs. the other top eight teams in the conference. However, the Bulls need more playoff experience before they can seriously challenge the top teams in the league. Pass.
5) WASHINGTON (15-1)
The Wizards are much-improved from last seasons squad that took Cleveland to six games in the conference quarterfinals. The series was tied at two before the Cavs won the final two games in overtime. Washington very well could make an even better run in this years playoffs, especially considering how well the club has played against Detroit (5-2) and Cleveland (4-2) in the last couple of seasons. A fantastic longshot play at 15-1.
THE REST OF THE EAST
Indiana, Toronto and Orlando sit at 16-1, while New Jersey, with all its injuries, is 25-1. The Pacers have gone backwards in recent years, from the conference finals, to the semis to the quarters. Despite their mid-season acquisitions, they still lost to Denver, Seattle and Golden State all at home earlier this month.
Toronto is definitely a team to watch in coming years, but this season will be a learning year for the young Raptors. The Magic are 5-12 in their last 17 games, so I won't even waste my time with them. Finally, the Nets are battling too many injuries to even be considered a factor down the stretch.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) DALLAS (7-5)
The Mavericks have been the best team in the league all season long, with winning streaks of 12 and 13, and they currently are riding high on a nine- game stretch. For the Western Conference, only six teams will be included: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Houston and the Lakers. To no ones surprise, the Mavs have, by far and away, the best record vs. the other teams at 10-4. After failing to win the NBA title last season, Dallas has been on a mission to do so this year, and the Mavs get my vote to take the West even at 7-5 odds.
2) PHOENIX (5-2)
Phoenix is the sucker bet of the West. The Suns failed the past two seasons in the conference finals, which shows that their style of play falters against the top defenses (Dallas and San Antonio) when the chips are on the table. Despite its 39-13 record, Phoenix sports the worst record against the other top five teams at 3-7, and at 5-2 odds, I'd rather put my dough on other teams with much better value.
3) SAN ANTONIO (5-1)
The Spurs have had a disappointing first half at 35-18 for a .660 winning percentage. They are currently fourth in the West, yet they would have finished third in the entire NBA last year with that very same winning percentage. San Antonio has failed to win more than five straight games the entire season and is 11-10 since January 1. Another disturbing statistic is a 5-9 record vs. the other top five Western clubs. Once again, this is where money management comes into play. Which team has a better chance of winning a conference, the Spurs at 5-1 having to go up against the Mavs and Suns, or the Cavs at 9-2 with Detroit being their main competition?
4) UTAH (9-1)
Carlos Boozer will be back by late February, and Utah has been playing magnificent as of late, winning six of the seven games that its leading scorer has missed. The Jazz should reach the final four in the West, and anything can happen from there. Utah is 8-4 vs. the top-rated clubs and has not lost to Phoenix since November 2005. If the Jazz square off with the Suns in the semifinals, all they would need is one more series win to reach the NBA Finals. If Dallas gets upset early, 9-1 looks very enticing as the longshot play in the West.
5) HOUSTON (10-1)
Every year, it seems that the Rockets must overcome some sort of major injury. Last year it was Tracy McGrady who missed 35 games, and this season, Yao Ming has played in only 27 of the teams 52 contests. Despite missing its big man, Houston is a mere 1 1/2 games behind San Antonio for fourth in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, thats not the spot to be in, as Dallas could very well be the Rockets' second-round opponent. Houston is not worth a flyer, even at 10-1.
6) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (16-1)
LA has dropped 11 of its last 15 games and finds itself only five games out of the playoffs. Of the top six teams in the West, the Lakers are the only club with a below .500 road record, which doesn't bode well for the postseason. No chance.
THE REST OF THE WEST
Why would anyone bet money on the Nuggets at 19-1? They are only one game over .500 and are 8-12 with Allen Iverson in the lineup. This is where value comes into play, as a team such as Washington at 15-1 is a much better play in the weaker Eastern Conference.
Minnesota and New Orleans are 28-1, while the Clippers are 32-1. None of these clubs has a realistic chance of winning the West, let alone making the playoffs and NOT playing the Mavericks in the first round.
<< Malisse retires from Memphis opener
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Belgian Xavier Malisse was leading
his first-round match Monday when he retired at the $665,000 Regions Morgan
Keegan Championships.
Malisse was ahead of Russian qualifier Teimuraz Gabashvili
<< Austin Peay head coach McCray resigns
Clarksville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Austin Peay State head football coach
Carroll McCray announced his resignation on Monday.
McCray's Governors posted just a 3-8 mark as an NCAA Football Championship
Subdivision Independent last
<< Chivas USA (MLS)
Signed forward Maykel Galindo as a Senior International player.
<< No. 6 Jayhawks top Wildcats, extend Little Apple dominance
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sherron Collins netted 20 points on 8-of-11
shooting as No. 6 Kansas continued its domination over rival Kansas State with
a 71-62 victory.
Mario Chalmers added 17 points while Darrell Arthur posted 13
Lakers' Radmanovic out at least eight weeks >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Lakers forward Vladimir
Radmanovic will be sidelined at least eight weeks after separating his right
shoulder.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the 26-year-old Radmanovic sustaine
Toronto Argonauts (CFL) >>
Signed quarterbacks Mike McMahon and Tom Arth.
Falcons soar into Sin City >>
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No longer the only member of the Mountain
West Conference among the nationally-ranked, the Air Force Falcons put their
three-game win streak on the line tonight as they visit the UNLV Runnin'
Rebels
Lone Star State rivals meet in Austin >>
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Intrastate and Big 12 rivals will collide
in Austin this evening, as the 19th-ranked Texas Longhorns welcome the
Texas Tech Red Raiders to town.
Back-to-back wins have enabled Texas Tech to
The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.
Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.
Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.
A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.
Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.
Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.
And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.
2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1
Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1
Donald Brown (IND) 5/1
Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1
Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1
Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1
Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1
Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1
Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1
Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1
Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1
Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1
Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1
Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1
Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1
Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1
Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1
Jason Smith (STL) 40/1
Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1
Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1
Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2
Pat White (MIA) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1
To visit this sports betting site go to BettingExpress.com for all your football betting lines needs.
For sports betting with credit cards site go to BettingExpress.com as well.
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.
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