Cust and Watson power Athletics past Red Sox

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2010 - Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jack Cust finished 2-for-3 with a two-run homer and scored twice as Oakland took down Boston, 6-4, in the rubber match of a three-game set.

Rajai Davis added two RBI and Matt Watson slugged his first career home run for the Athletics, who have won seven of their last eight.

Gio Gonzalez (9-6) worked six innings for the win, allowing seven hits and four runs with three strikeouts and a pair of walks. Michael Wuertz turned in a scoreless ninth for his second save.

"It's really encouraging. That's still a good team over there although they've had some injuries," Cust said of the still-contending Sox. "We've faced some good pitching and that lineup has quality at-bats. We're just going to try and build off this and face the next series."

Adrian Beltre went 3-for-4 with a two-run homer and drove in three for the Red Sox, who stumbled to their fifth loss in seven contests.

Activated from the 15-day disabled list prior to the game after recovering from a strained left hamstring, Clay Buchholz (10-5) was shelled in defeat for six hits and five runs, fanning two with three walks over four-plus frames.

Jed Lowrie's one-out run-scoring hit in the fifth got the Sox within a run, but the A's chased Buchholz in the home half, scoring three times to take a 6-2 advantage.

Kurt Suzuki and Cust stroked back-to-back hits before Scott Atchison took the hill. He allowed a one-out RBI single from Mark Ellis, then after a passed ball moved both runners into scoring position, Davis stroked a two-run hit to center before being caught in a rundown between first and second.

Beltre's two-run homer to right-center in the sixth made it 6-4, but Boston couldn't score with two on in the seventh. Neither could the A's extend their advantage, as Davis flied out with the bases loaded in the home half.

Oakland's Coco Crisp hit a one-out triple in the eighth but was erased at home trying to score on a fly to left from Cliff Pennington.

The failed attempt at an insurance run wasn't costly, though, as Wuertz set down the side in order in the ninth to lock up the victory.

"It was just four runs. It wasn't enough," mused Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "We battled back, but the extra two was huge. That hurt us because they spread it out and it was just too much. When you spread it out (score runs in different innings) that's how you win."

Boston picked up a run in the first after a Beltre RBI single, then Watson knotted the score in the second with a one-out solo shot.

In the home third, Daric Barton reached on a leadoff infield single and scored on Cust's two-run blast two batters later.

Game Notes

Watson had played in 36 previous MLB games with the Mets (2003) and A's (2005; 2010) and went 75 career at-bats before going deep...The Sox head to Seattle for four games starting Thursday, continuing their 10-day, 10-game western road swing...Oakland improved to 22-10 this season in day games...The A's host the White Sox for three starting Friday...Boston also activated Lowrie off the 60-day disabled list, designated infielder Ryan Shealy for assignment, while optioning pitchers Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrera to Triple-A Pawtucket.

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

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Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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